Reuters poll sees Congress coalition leading in election.................

An alliance led by the ruling left-of-centre Congress Party is most likely to win the next general election but it could need communist support to build a majority, a Reuters poll of 14 leading analysts has predicted.

The main battle of the April/May election will be between the Congress Party-led coalition, known as the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party.

A group of smaller political parties, including the communists, have formally launched a "Third Front" in a bid to provide an alternative to the two main national coalitions.

On average, analysts said there was a 32 percent chance a Congress-led alliance would win, but would need communist party support to stay in power. They said there was a 27 percent possibility the Congress would win without leftist support.

The leftist parties withdrew their support last year for the government over a civilian nuclear deal with the United States, but some analysts say they could rejoin in order to stop Hindu nationalists from forming government.

Those polled said, on average, there was a 23 percent chance of an NDA victory and only an 18 percent possibility of a Third Front government.

India holds its general election from April 16 to May 13. Counting will be on May 16.

Reuters surveyed 14 analysts from a variety of backgrounds, including universities, pollsters and banks, on Monday and Tuesday. The poll does not aim to be scientific but to give readers a snapshot of how some of the leading India analysts are thinking.

The following are the results of their replies. Reuters will repeat this survey on a weekly basis each Tuesday.